TY  - JOUR
TI  - Is it So Bad that We Cannot Recognize Black Swans?
T2  - HSE Economic Journal 
IS  - HSE Economic Journal 
KW  - financial crises
KW  - stock exchange
KW  - Poisson processes
AB  - Analyzing the reasons of financial crises in the book «The Black Swan» N.N. Taleb concludes that modern economic models badly describe reality for they are not able to forecast such crises in advance.We tried to present processes on stock exchange as two random processes one of which happens rather often (regular regime) and the other one - rather rare. Our answer is that if regular processes are correctly recognized with the probability a bit higher than 1/2, this allows to get positive average gain. We believe that this very phenomenon lies in the basis of unwillingness of people to expect crises permanently and to try recognizing them.
AU  - Fuad Aleskerov
AU  - Lyudmila Egorova
UR  - https://ej.hse.ru/en/2010-14-4/38503287.html
PY  - 2010
SP  - 492-506
VL  - 14