TY  - JOUR
TI  - Dating of the Russian Business Cycle
T2  - HSE Economic Journal 
IS  - HSE Economic Journal 
KW  - macroeconomics
KW  - business cycles theory
KW  - dating of the business cycle
KW  - business cycle turning points
KW  - macroeconomic statistics
KW  - Russian economy
AB  - In this paper we use standard methods and construct our own methodology of dating business cycle in the Russian economy in post-soviet era starting from the middle of 1990-ies. The main purpose of this paper is identification and dating of business cycles in the Russian eco­nomy during the last fifteen years. We use dating approaches of Harding - Pagan and Hamilton as a benchmark. This way we found turning points of the reference cycle starting from the second half of 1990-ies. It worth noting that both methods give very similar results. As a primary data in out analysis we used data on national accounts from Rosstat. We also use various data from Archive of Economic and Sociological Data of NRU-HSE. Our main finding is that during 1998-2014 the Russian economy went through two full business cycles with trough sin October, 1998 and May, 2009 and peaks in April, 2008 and September, 2012. Starting from that month the Russian economy stopped exhibiting growth and first went into stagnation period and then into deep recession from the beginning of 2015. In this paper we also date the growth cycles for the Russian economy. Our main finding is that in this case we found two more recessions in the growth cycle framework: from November, 2001 until June, 2002 and June, 2004 until January, 2005. The last recession in the growth cycle started in January, 2012.
AU  - Dmitry Dubovskiy
AU  - Dmitry Kofanov
AU  - Kirill Sosunov
UR  - https://ej.hse.ru/en/2015-19-4/168427949.html
PY  - 2015
SP  - 554-575
VL  - 19