Schrettl W.

Recovery of Investment in Russia: Why is it Fading Away?

2001. Т. 5. № 3. С. 349–362 [содержание номера]
For the past decade, up to the first half of 1999, arguably the most dramatic indicator of Russia's economic crisis was the decline of aggregate capital investment by a stunning 80 percent (in real terms). For a while afterwards, the most promising indicator of a beginning economic recovery has been the accelerating surge of aggregate capital investment, with its rate of growth reaching almost 18 percent for the year 2000 as a whole, again in real terms. Unfortunately, the most recent data point to a rapid slowdown of investment growth, with the latest (annualized) rate falling to below 8 percent for the first two months of 2001. Although monthly data should clearly not be overinterpreted, indications are that the slowdown is accelerating, with growth rates of investment falling first to 9.2 percent (year-on-year) and then to 6.3 percent in January and February 2001, respectively. Policies that might be conducive to a revival (or at least a continuation) of the previous positive trend seem to presuppose some diagnostic clarity as to why those developments, i.e. the post-crisis recovery of investment and, possibly, its subsequent slowdown have occurred. Clearly, there are some quite plausible explanations. However, as we shall see below, at least one of them seems to have been neglected so far, with potentially serious consequences. It is hardly surprising that not all segments and sectors of the economy participate equally in the movements of aggregate investment. The specific structural patterns of investment deserve attention. As we shall see, by looking at investment from the perspectives of company size, capital-intensity, and sectoral profit shares several pertinent insights and policy lessons can be derived.
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