Russian Cyclical Indicators and Their Usefulness in «Real Time»: an Experience of the 2008–2009 Recession

Abstract

For years anyone interested in Russia had access to a full set of common tools for bu­siness cycle analysis: several versions of Composite Leading Index, a Purchasing Managers' Index, Enterprise and Consumer Sentiment Indexes, etc. However the 2008–2009 world crisis has spread throughout Russia quite unexpectedly for most politicians, businessmen and experts alike. Is it possible that none of existing indexes were able to say anything about the approaching decline? In reality this is not the case. So then why did a more or less definite forecast provided by some indexes have no consequences for common economic sentiments in Russia? The paper gives some answers for this question.