Russia's true Imports?

Abstract

Russian authorities give two official figures for imports of goods to Russia. Russian Customs registers values stated in customs declarations, while the Central Bank of Russia adds in its estimate of grey imports to obtain an overall import figu­re. Using mirror statistics of Russia’s main trading partners, we suggest that grey imports are in fact higher than the CBR estimate. Hence, official statements of trade and current account surpluses should be reduced to better reflect Russia’s actual external balance. This would also imply less capital outflow from Russia than suggested by current estimates.