Next Economic Crisis in the USA: Practical Approach to Forecasting

  • Sergey Nikolaenko Bank for Development and Foreign Economic Affairs (Vnesheconombank), 9, Akademika Sakharova prosp., Moscow, 107996, Russian Federation
Keywords: economic crisis, analysis of cyclical dynamics of economic variables, unit of economic time

Abstract

This article is devoted to the method for analysis of cyclical dynamics of economic variables that is based on a concept of «unit of economic time». Applicability of this method for forecasting of business cycle turning points is investigated. In particular, when the method is used to estimate the possibility of the next economic crisis in the USA, the crisis is predicted to happen in the 3 quarter of 2009.

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Published
2004-01-27
How to Cite
NikolaenkoS. (2004). Next Economic Crisis in the USA: Practical Approach to Forecasting. HSE Economic Journal, 8(3), 376-398. Retrieved from https://ej.hse.ru/article/view/29583
Issue
Vol 8 No 3 (2004): HSE Economic Journal
Section
Untitled section