Scenario Estimates of the Civil Aviation Demand for Domestic Aircraft Industry

Abstract

The article is devoted to the forecasting of prospective order volumes for the domestic civil aviation industry. The specific conditions of functioning of the Russian aviation complex and related problems of applicability of traditional methods of forecasting are discussed. In the article the scenario method of forecasting is offered and calculation of the expected volume and the nomenclature of the order for the Russian aircraft industry on new planes from civil aviation for the period till 2015 under favorable and adverse conditions of development of the domestic aircraft market is carried out. Based on the results of the calculations, a list of priority measures of state regulation aimed at both expanding demand and improving the parameters of supply of Russian aircraft in the domestic market is proposed.