Empirical Analysis of Financial Crises in Russia

Abstract

The dynamics of macroeconomic parameters describing the behavior of the financial system in periods of calm development, pre-crisis periods and directly during the financial crises in Russia is studied. The hypothesis of the relationship between the trend change in the dynamics of indicators characterizing the state of the financial system and the financial crisis is tested. Some regularities that were peculiar to the state of the financial system in the periods preceding the crises are deduced. An approach to the construction of a methodology for monitoring financial markets aimed at finding signals that portend an increased possibility of a crisis is proposed. The experimental technique and results of research of separate indicators of development of the Russian financial system are given.