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Sergey Nikolaenko1
  • 1 Bank for Development and Foreign Economic Affairs (Vnesheconombank), 9, Akademika Sakharova prosp., Moscow, 107996, Russian Federation

Next Economic Crisis in the USA: Practical Approach to Forecasting

2004. Vol. 8. No. 3. P. 376–398 [issue contents]
This article is devoted to the method for analysis of cyclical dynamics of economic variables that is based on a concept of «unit of economic time». Applicability of this method for forecasting of business cycle turning points is investigated. In particular, when the method is used to estimate the possibility of the next economic crisis in the USA, the crisis is predicted to happen in the 3 quarter of 2009.
Citation: Nikolaenko S. (2004) Prakticheskiy podkhod k opredeleniyu momenta nachala novogo ekonomicheskogo krizisa v SShA [Next Economic Crisis in the USA: Practical Approach to Forecasting]. HSE Economic Journal , vol. 8, no 3, pp. 376-398 (in Russian)
Keywords: analysis of cyclical dynamics of economic variables; unit of economic time; economic crisis
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