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Kirill Sosunov 1, Andrew Shumilov  2
  • 1 National Research University Higher School of Economics, 20 Myasnitskaya Str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation
  • 2 Institute of Open Economy, 4-3, Kolpachny Lane, Moscow, 101990, Russia

Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for Russia

2005. Vol. 9. No. 2. P. 216–229 [issue contents]
Following methodological approach proposed by Edwards, the paper estimates empirically Russia's equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER) for the period 1995–2003. ERER is defined as the relative price of non-tradables to tradables consistent with the simultaneous achievement of internal and external balances of the economy. Reduced form solution of simultaneous equations system relates ERER to a set of variables called fundamentals. These variables are identified as terms of trade, production of non-tradables, and capital flows; and the reduced form equation is estimated using Johansen cointegration technique. Effects of monetary and fiscal policies’ variables on the short-run dynamics of the real exchange rate and the speed of its adjustment towards the equilibrium are also investigated within a framework of error-correction model.
Citation: Sosunov K., Shumilov A. (2005) Otsenivanie ravnovesnogo real'nogo obmennogo kursa rossiyskogo rublya [Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for Russia ]. Ekonomicheskiy zhurnal VShE, vol. 9, no 2, pp. 216-229 (in Russian)
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