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Nikolay Arefiev1
  • 1 National Research University Higher School of Economics, 20 Myasnitskaya Str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation

Partial Identification of Monetary Rule Using Restrictions on Lagged Effects

2016. Vol. 20. No. 3. P. 500–512 [issue contents]

I estimate the response of several variables representing business cycle activity to a restrictive shock of monetary policy within a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model using US quarterly data from 1967:Q1 to 2007:Q4. The monetary policy is measured by the Fe­deral Funds rate, and the response to the Federal Funds rate shock is measured for the following variables: unemployment rate, capacity utilization rate, real GDP growth rate, GDP deflator-based inflation growth rate, commodity price growth rate, long-run interest rate, nominal personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, and change in private inventories. To identify the monetary policy rule and the monetary policy shock I use assumption that the lagged federal interest rate is included in the policy rule equation, and is excluded from each other equation of the structural model. I also use the usual for the SVAR literature assumption that the structural shocks are uncorrelated. If I include a sufficient variety of variables representing the state of the economic activity, these hypotheses suffice for the partial identification of the monetary policy rule and monetary policy shock, so the impulse response functions for the monetary policy shock can be estimated. I obtain relatively thin confidence intervals for the impulse response functions for the real sector variables, however, the impulse response functions for the inflation rate and for the commodity price growth rate are insignificant or weakly significant. All estimated impulse response functions are consistent with predictions of macroeconomic models with sticky prices. The maximum effect of the restrictive mo­netary policy shock is achieved 2–3 years after the shock, and the effect becomes insignificant after 4–6 years.

Citation: Arefiev N. (2016) Chastichnaya identifikatsiya monetarnogo pravila na osnove lagovykh ogranicheniy [Partial Identification of Monetary Rule Using Restrictions on Lagged Effects]. HSE Economic Journal, vol. 20, no 3, pp. 500-512 (in Russian)
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