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Alexander Smirnov1
  • 1 National Research University Higher School of Economics, 20 Myasnitskaya Str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation

Cyclical Dynamics of Money and Debt

2024. Vol. 28. No. 3. P. 363–411 [issue contents]

The unprecedented liquidity issuance trigged by the "COVID-19" pandemic has drastically altered behavior of the money and debt markets participants including their interactions with monetary and macroprudential regulators. The global financialization aspects that dictated cohe­rent monetary and debt processes were investigated by modelling the forced harmonic oscillator.

The model demonstrated that the macrodebt index dynamics followed the second-order ordinary differential equation (ODE) which elucidated how creditors were compensated for ex­pected losses due to the aggregate debt growth. The liquidity and debt interference gave rise to their cyclic fluctuations alternatively visualized through their phasor rotation in the complex pla­ne. Oscillations and rotation of money and debt indices provided insights into various facets of a macro-financial cycle encompassing critical phenomena such as resonance or financial crises.

The money creation process adhering to macro-financial theory has been modeled as an "instantaneous" impulse by the Dirac delta function. It enabled the calculation of the debt market fundamental response to monetary shocks represented by the Green's function. The convolution of the latter with the money/debt system driver yielded a solution to the oscillator's ODE, thus accommodating various monetary and macroprudential influences, not necessarily periodic in nature.

The proposed model uncovered causal links of the stimulus-reaction type that are prevalent in contemporary money and debt markets. It elucidated the paradox of "unlimited" money issuance by banks and aligned with I. Fisher's scenarios of cyclic money/debt development. The oscillator model behavior underscored inertia in debt repayments as a contributing factor to the macrofinancial stabilization costs. Numerical simulations of the model effectively replicated the global debt market reaction to the actions of leading central banks during the 2020 finan cial crisis.
Citation: Smirnov A. (2024) Tsiklichnost' dinamiki deneg i dolga [Cyclical Dynamics of Money and Debt]. HSE Economic Journal , vol. 28, no 3, pp. 363-411 (in Russian)
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