|
Yevgeniya Pak1The Effects of Financial Repression and Oil-Price Shock in a Small Open Resource-Based Economy
2024.
Vol. 28.
No. 3.
P. 427–467
[issue contents]
The article examines the macroeconomic effects of financial repression in a small open economy dependent on oil exports. The author examines the impact of financial repression (in the form of the interest rate ceiling on loans to producers) on macro variables, especially inflation, assuming that the result of the policy of repression by the fiscal authority may depend on the channel of its implementation. The author builds a DSGE model of a small open economy dependent on the oil export, with incorporation of financial repression in the form of providing individual producers with access to loans at a subsidized interest rate. The work analyzes several experiments at once. The first experiment analyzes the effects of a permanent shock of financial repression (giving additional loans at a reduced interest rate to selected domestic producers of intermediate goods). The second experiment compares the effect of an oil price shock on two economies: one has already experienced a permanent shock of preferential lending, and the economy has moved to a new long-term equilibrium, while the second has no preferential lending. Particular attention in both experiments is paid to the response of inflation. Using a version of the model calibrated for the economy of Kazakhstan, it was demonstrated that financial repression in the form of providing preferential loans to some domestic producers at a reduced interest rate does not clearly increase the level of volatility of macroeconomic variables in response to an oil price shock. The results of the current model showed that the volatility and overall response of inflation, aggregate output, and consumption after an oil price shock in the model with the specified form of financial repression is lower than in the model without repression. Based on these results and considering the conclusions of the work [Pak, Pekarski, 2022], where an other mechanism of financial repression was considered, it is concluded that when a central bank in a small resource-based economy carries out monetary policy, the very channel of financial repression in the form of preferential lending turns out to be important.
Citation:
Pak Y. (2024) Effekty finansovoy repressii i vneshnego shoka v maloy otkrytoy syr'evoy ekonomike [The Effects of Financial Repression and Oil-Price Shock in a Small Open Resource-Based Economy]. HSE Economic Journal , vol. 28, no 3, pp. 427-467 (in Russian)
|
|