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3–27
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This paper studies the currency crisis theories, and with the help of them it finds out the main reasons for the Russian crisis. It goes through the exchange rate determination, first and second generation theories and, particularly, the recent theories for the Asian crisis. The basic weaknesses of the Russian economy rendered the country inefficient for growth and inclined to crisis. The main reason for the crisis were the long-time federal budget deficits, which were mostly financed through short-term domestic debt. This created expectations of central bank financing. The Asian crisis was a trigger for the Russian crisis. Inadequate financial regulations and lack of information are some explanations for this contagion -effect. But the main mistakes, which led to the crisis, are Russians own - the long-time federal budget deficits. Thus, the repairs should also start from there. |
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28–41
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Numerous studies of the conditions of long-term economic growth contain a mathematical problem of optimal control over an unlimited period of time. This article identifies some of the common mistakes in principle. For the Cobb-Douglas production function, a complete solution of the optimal economic growth problem in a closed single-sector economy is given. |
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42–81
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The intensity, consistency and direction of price proportions movement in Russia after price liberalization are investigated. The regularities of the process of transformation of the structure of Russian prices are revealed and their possible causes are discussed. It is shown that with the enormous changes in Russian price proportions, the use of only traditional composite price indices and estimates of purchasing power parities is not sufficient for an adequate analysis of inflation processes. |
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82–100
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The article analyzes the budget and monetary policy pursued by the Government since 1995, as well as the structure of financial transactions in the Russian economy by the end of 1997. As one of the causes of the financial crisis, the contradiction between the stabilization goals of monetary policy and Pro-inflationary fiscal policy is considered. Assumptions are made about the possibility of a financial crisis in early 1997. Attention is focused on the problem of non-payments to the budget and extra-budgetary funds, as well as on the problem of capital export. Various scenarios of development of events in case of flight of the foreign capital are considered. |
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101–138
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The journal begins publication of a course of lectures on models of macroeconomics, which for a number of years is read by Professor Smirnov A.D. in the first year of master's degree at the State University of the Higher school of Economics. Lectures can be used by students and postgraduates of economic faculties of universities to study economic theory, macroeconomic modeling and problems of transition economy. |
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