The article analyzes the budget and monetary policy pursued by the Government since 1995, as well as the structure of financial transactions in the Russian economy by the end of 1997. As one of the causes of the financial crisis, the contradiction between the stabilization goals of monetary policy and Pro-inflationary fiscal policy is considered. Assumptions are made about the possibility of a financial crisis in early 1997. Attention is focused on the problem of non-payments to the budget and extra-budgetary funds, as well as on the problem of capital export. Various scenarios of development of events in case of flight of the foreign capital are considered.