Alexey Makarov1, Tatyana Mitrova2, Vyacheslav Kulagin1
  • 1 The Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ERI RAS), 117186, Nagornaya st., 31, k.2, Moscow, Russian Federation
  • 2 The Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ERI RAS), 31, k. 2, Nagornaya st., Moscow, 117186, Russia

Long-term Global and Russian Energy Outlook

2012. Vol. 16. No. 2. P. 172–204 [issue contents]

Russia is the largest exporter of energy resources and is dependent critically from the situation in the global energy market – the sale of energy resources provides Russia with up to 15% of GDP, around 30% of its consolidated budget, and nearly two thirds of the country's export earnings. Due to such high dependence from these factors, the matter of Russia’s nationalsecurity becomes the establishment of an integrated system of monitoring and forecasting trends in the global energy market, as well as the analysis of the role of national energy companies, which would provide the estimates of potential effects and risks that these companies and the country's economy might have or come across.

Global and Russian Energy Outlook until 2035 is a joint project of the Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ERI RAS) and the Russian Energy Agency (REA), which was made on their own initiative.

The novelty of the Outlook is that the forecasts for Russia’s economic and energy develop­ment (the key task of the study) are composed in conjunction with the elaboration of the global forecasts. As for the global energy sector, the task expands to the evaluation of the world fuelmarkets in accordance with their product structure (oil, basic oil products, pipeline and liquefied natural gas, steam coal) in their territorial evolution.

The following non-trivial results based on the quantitative forecasts have been obtained:

·      In the nearest years, the North America will shift to self-production of natural gasand follow suit with oil production, which would possibly entail its own oil price formation independent from the world fuel markets.

·      Development of the global gas market based on the advanced growth of LNG trade, the development of the Eurasian pipeline network and the dominance of the «gas-gas» competition in the European market.

·      By the end of the forecasting period for the first time during the contemporary history the main part of incremental global primary energy demand will be covered by non-organic energy resources.

For Russia there are high risks of deteriorating gas and partially oil export conditions with possible stagnation of the export revenues and, by 2035, a threefold reduction in the share of the energy sector in the GDP. As a result energy might lose the role of the Russian economic growth engine and efficient geopolitical mechanism.
Citation: Makarov A., Mitrova T., Kulagin V. (2012) Dolgosrochnyy prognoz razvitiya energetiki mira i Rossii [Long-term Global and Russian Energy Outlook]. Ekonomicheskiy zhurnal VShE, vol. 16, no 2, pp. 172-204 (in Russian)
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