Dmitry Dubovskiy1, Dmitry Kofanov2, Kirill Sosunov3
  • 1 Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, 82, Vernadskogo prosp., Moscow, 119571, Russian Federation
  • 2 University of Wisconsin, William H. Sewell Social Science Building 1180 Observatory Drive Madison, WI 53706-1393 USA
  • 3 National Research University Higher School of Economics, 20 Myasnitskaya Str., Moscow, 101000, Russian Federation

Dating of the Russian Business Cycle

2015. Vol. 19. No. 4. P. 554–575 [issue contents]
In this paper we use standard methods and construct our own methodology of dating business cycle in the Russian economy in post-soviet era starting from the middle of 1990-ies. The main purpose of this paper is identification and dating of business cycles in the Russian eco­nomy during the last fifteen years. We use dating approaches of Harding – Pagan and Hamilton as a benchmark. This way we found turning points of the reference cycle starting from the second half of 1990-ies. It worth noting that both methods give very similar results. As a primary data in out analysis we used data on national accounts from Rosstat. We also use various data from Archive of Economic and Sociological Data of NRU-HSE. Our main finding is that during 1998–2014 the Russian economy went through two full business cycles with trough sin October, 1998 and May, 2009 and peaks in April, 2008 and September, 2012. Starting from that month the Russian economy stopped exhibiting growth and first went into stagnation period and then into deep recession from the beginning of 2015. In this paper we also date the growth cycles for the Russian economy. Our main finding is that in this case we found two more recessions in the growth cycle framework: from November, 2001 until June, 2002 and June, 2004 until January, 2005. The last recession in the growth cycle started in January, 2012.
Citation: Dubovskiy D., Kofanov D., Sosunov K. (2015) Datirovka rossiyskogo biznes-tsikla [Dating of the Russian Business Cycle]. HSE Economic Journal, vol. 19, no 4, pp. 554-575 (in Russian)
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