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Michael Laskin 1, Oleg Rusakov 2, Olga Jaksumbaeva 3
  • 1 ООО «Invest-Stroy», 28–30, Sadovaya str., St. Petersburg, 191023, Russian Federation
  • 2 Saint-Peterburg State University, 7–9, Universitetskaya emb., St.Petersburg, 199034, Russian Federation
  • 3 Saint-Peterburg State University, 7–9, Universitetskaya emb., St.Petersburg, 199034, Russian Federation

Estimation of the Real Estate Market Indexes According to Statistical Data and Based on Multidimensional Log-normal Distribution

2016. Vol. 20. No. 2. P. 268–284 [issue contents]
The article researches a real estate markets with the aim to find objectively justified patterns for the following real estate market indexes: pricing, rate of rent, and capitalization ratio appraisals. Authors of the article introduce a new method of estimation of these indexes. This method is based on a stochastic model in which the main stochastic component is a random vector with jointly normal distributed terms: logarithm of prices of sales and logarithm of rates of rent. The introduced method is applied for monitoring of objectively justified indexes for real estate markets. Statistical processing of Saint-Petersburg real estate market data results that the empirical distributions of the prices significantly fit to the two dimensional lognormal law of distribution. For establishing statistical hypotheses accordance the authors use Kolmogorov – Smirnov test of fit. The modern standards of appraisal in EU, UK, USA, Russian Federation uni­quely treat real estate market value as follows: “ For the aim of establishing of the market value one determines the most probable price with the following necessary conditions. At this price the real estate object could be sold on the date of estimation in the open competitive market, when the parties to the deal behave reasonably, having full access to all necessary information, and the price of the deal is not affected by any force majeure circumstances ” . The market value is defined as a numerical characteristic (mode) of density of distribution of a random value: price of supply or price of bargain. In the article the capitalization ratio appraisals is a random value with conditionally lognormal distribution under condition that the price or the rate of rent is known. The paper gives examples of empirical distributions of prices of supplies, prices of bargains on the street retail markets for Saint-Petersburg in 2013. The examples of calculation of the capitalization ratio appraisals are also given. The article proves that the capitalization ratio appraisals has a non-trivial probabilistic nature and it is not a constant. The article also proves that in the frame of the introduced stochastic model of pricing under assumption of the joint lognormality of the price of sale and the rate of rent two most used estimations of the market value equal, where the first one is based on the gain approach and the second one is base on the comparative approach. Consequently, a corresponding procedure of concordance this two approaches is not needed.
Citation: Laskin M., Rusakov O., Jaksumbaeva O. (2016) Otsenka pokazateley rynka nedvizhimosti po statisticheskim dannym na osnove mnogomernogo logarifmicheski normal'nogo zakona [Estimation of the Real Estate Market Indexes According to Statistical Data and Based on Multidimensional Log-normal Distribution]. HSE Economic Journal, vol. 20, no 2, pp. 268-284 (in Russian)
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