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2017. vol. 21. No. 4
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533–561
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This article offers a new approach to growth accounting in Russia, identifying fundamental and cyclical components, including capacity utilisation and the employment level. A detailed decomposition of the labour contribution to growth is conducted to identify demographic effects. A modified index of human capital is developed that considers the impact on GDP of educational attainment (based on PISA scores) and changes in health (the fall in mortality among those of working age). This is used to refine the historical trend in total factor productivity. The article provides the results of a decomposition of the historical GDP trend in Russia in 2000–2016, and of two long-term forecasts of economic growth, along with the contribution of the individual components. It is shown that under the inertia scenario the labour contribution to growth will be negative across the whole period to 2035. Given established trends in investment and total factor productivity, and moderate oil prices, the long-term growth rate in Russia will remain close to 1% a year. These negative demographic effects cannot be fully offset through a reform of the pension system. At the same time, it is shown that a rapid convergence with the level of human capital in developed countries would allow for a significant acceleration in the rate of economic growth. |
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562–591
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This work, based on the results of long-term (up to 2050) pension forecasting, is devoted to the study of the impact of demographic parameters on the future of the Russian pay-as-you-go pension system. It assesses the sensitivity of the parameters of the pension system to changing scenarios of the population forecast. It is shown that the scenario with low birth rate, life expectancy and migration leads to the smallest increase in the number of pensioners, but at the same time to the greatest reduction in the number of contributors, which may have negative consequences for the situation on the labor market and economic development in general. On the contrary, the scenario with a high birth rate, high migration and the greatest increase in life expectancy gives the least reduction in the number of contributors, but dramatically increases the number of «insurance» pensioners. From the perspective of fiscal sustainability of the pension system, the «low» scenario is the best, but even there the number of pensioners begins to exceed the number of contributors already in 2024, and the gap between pension contributory incomes and the expenditures on «insurance» pensions increases from 2,4% of GDP in 2017 to 4,6% in 2050. Furthermore, the dynamics of life expectancy in the «low» scenario leaves no room for raising the retirement age. On the basis of statistics and population surveys, the article discusses whether there are socio-demographic reasons for raising the retirement age in Russia and concludes that the significance of the ill health is weakening as an argument against this measure. The article also presents the results of pension forecast performed for one of the possible options for raising the retirement age, which show that this measure significantly reduces the negative consequences of aging, even under the assumptions about a possible increase in unemployment and disability. By 2050, the gap between the pension incomes and expendi tures is almost equal to the level of 2017 under the «high» scenario of the population forecast and still remains 1,3–1,5 times lower for «medium» and «low» scenarios. |
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592–622
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The article analyses trends in working life expectancy in Russia. Working life expectancy is calculated with the Sullivan method. The analysis shows that duration of working life in Russiais shorter than in many countries of Europe and North America. Thе gap is particularly high among the male population. At the same time Russian men and women have the shortest periods of economic inactivity. Our findings indicate that the lag of Russia is determined by the short expected life expectancy. This gap is particularly high among the male population. In the context of mass inclusion of young people in the process of obtaining higher education, the expected pension period is short. The combination of short periods of working life and economic inactivity, as well as low gender differentiation in the duration of working life, distinguishes Russia from other countries. We found that a significant part of the losses and the lag of Russia from other countries are determined by the high mortality rate in working ages, especially the male population. The potential for growth in the duration of the economically active life of the Russian population is primarily determined by the further decline in mortality, especially in working age. The increase in retirement age should be coordinated with the increase in life expectancy. |
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623–647
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Earlier papers revealed educational differences in mortality in Russia in 1970’s–1980’s were at least as significant as in Western countries, and were largely similar to those observed in Eastern Bloc. Starting from 1998 there is a little knowledge about socio-economic characteristics of mortality since data collection has been discontinued and resumed only in 2011. Contemporary vital statistics on death is suffering from missing data on educational attainment of deceased (25,4% of all records in 2015). By proposing three approaches to overcome difficulties with missing data this paper presents new estimates of life expectancy at age 30 (LE30) by educational attainment among Russian men and women in 2015. According to the third approach absolute mortality differences between high-educated and low-educated is 17,5 years for men, 14,5 – for women. Despite the fact that LE30 has been growing for the last decade and has returned to the level of the late 1980’s, the level of absolute and relative inequality in mortality has increased. In terms of the causes of death mortality burden of infectious and parasitic diseases, external causes, diseases of the respiratory organs is more unevenly distributed between educational groups in modern Russia and is primarily on low-educated population. |
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648–679
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We explore the noticeable liberalization of Russian labor migration 2007–2008, as a natural experiment. How did it influence the labor market equilibrium and especially the wages of certain categories of Russian employees? We use various data, including remittances from Russia, and restore related increase in official and unofficial labor migration. According to our estimate, the number of migrant workers increased significantly, from 3,3 million in 2006 to 4,2 million (2007) and then to 4,55 million (2008). This did not cause additional unemployment, but did influence wages. We follow Borjas’s method of assessing the impact of natural experiments, and we are interested in equilibrium wage elasticities and the interdependencies among labor groups in Russia. To reveal the elasticity of equilibrium wages responding to 2007–2008 inflow of (mostly unskilled) labor, we run difference-in-difference regressions on RLMS data. For some Russian residents, their wages responded noticeably to new policy. The most affected were pre-established Asian migrants: they lost 14–17,5% wages in response to the 8%–14% increase in the migrant work force. Blue collar ethnic Russians or those with low qualifications lost about 4,5–5,5% of their wages, while the impact on white-collar workers was insignificant. The macro-economic consequences of such liberalization policies for Russia, include losses for some categories of employees, which can be compared with additional GDP generated. |
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680–701
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In OECD countries, as a result of demographic changes that lead to slowdown in the growth of economically active population, the use of labour potential of older workers, including pensioners, is becoming increasingly urgent. The importance of this problem increases with the enlargement of this group in the total population. This article aims to analyze the dynamics and cross-country differences in the labour market situation of older workers in OECD countries, developed and transition. Particular attention is paid to the factors under which older workers’ participation in labour market is formed. The methodology of this work is based on institutional analysis of the labour market. The results of the study contribute to the understanding of the participation of certain groups of labour in employment. At the same time, this work is practically oriented, and its results can be used for formulating the population and labour market policy in the Russian Federation. We use the OECD Employment and Labor Market Statistics Database as the main source of statistical information. As results of the study, we state that in the OECD countries, since mid-1990s the older groups has significantly improved their position in the labour market, which is reflected in the growing level of economic activity and employment, lower, in comparison with other age cohorts, unemployment. Thus, the stable trend of the previous three decades was interrupted. At the same time there was a convergence of labour market indicators for male and female older age groups and convergence of official and effective retirement ages, including between gendergroups. Improvement of older workers employment is largely determined by their personal characteristics. Improving the health of elderly cohorts and lengthening the active period of life create conditions for longer working career. Structural changes in the branch and occupational composition of the employed also create favorable conditions for retaining and attracting older workers to the labour market. It would be wrong to link the "successes" of older workers in the labour market with the expansion of part-time employment – most of them work in full-time workplaces. The current policy of the OECD countries is mainly aimed at "pushing away" the employee's retirement age by legislative measures, including rising the retirement age. Still little is being done to create better employment conditions for these groups of labour, including retraining. Increasing the flexibility of the labour market could also contribute to a more active participation of older workers in the economic activity. |
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702–720
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This paper considers Richard Thaler’s contribution into the exploration of economic behavior and its deviations from the predictions of the classical economic theory. The paper summarized the 2017 Nobel laureate in economics contribution in several areas: the study of mental accounting system, social preferences, endowment effect and the self-control problem. It also describes the effect that Thaler’s research had on the introduction of a new type of economic policy – the libertarian paternalism. |
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