On the Stability of Multipliers of Russia’s Financial Social Accounting Matrices for during the Decade 2012–2021
Abstract
Social Accounting Matrices being an integral part of the System of National Accounts (SNA) are a convenient tool for analyzing resource flows of the national economy and its social processes, as well as for calibrating Computable General Equilibrium models and constructing various multiplier models in macroeconomics. This paper shows a method for constructing Financial Social Accounting Matrices (FSAM) for the Russian Federation for 2012–2021 based on data from the integrated table of national accounts of Rosstat and statistics of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on financial accounts of the System of National Accounts (SNA). The proposed method, given the existing limitations in the SNA statistics published in the Russian Federation, makes maximum use of the available data without information loss. Based on the constructed FSAM, a 10-year series of FSAM accounting multiplier matrices was calculated under the assumption of exogeneity of accounts for transactions with the Rest of the World. This set of exogenous accounts (selected only for reasons of simplicity of interpretation of results when demonstrating the capabilities of FSAM) allows using the multipliers obtained in this way to assess the effects on transactions of redistribution of value added within the Russian economy from shocks of foreign trade, capital and finance flows of the Russian Federation with the rest of the world. To understand the contribution of various transactions between FSAM accounts, the decomposition of the found multipliers was carried out in order to identify direct, indirect and cross effects according to the methodology of Nobel laureate Sir J.R.N. Stone. The resulting multipliers and their decompositions into the three components mentioned demonstrate their stability throughout the decade 2012–2021, which inspires cautious optimism regarding their predictive power.
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