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3–30
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The article discusses the model of stochastic dynamics of public debt and seniorage for highly asymmetric financial market of a transition economy. Macroeconomic policy of debt stabilization is considered as an option, the implementation of which takes place at the point of a reflective barrier. When it is reached, the amount of real money emission provides the optimal value of the expected present value of the debt. For the reflective barrier, the debt market is balanced, with the optimal option price positive and maximum for the government, and zero for private investors who fully pay for the policy of stabilizing public debt. |
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31–66
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The paper analyzes the accuracy of measuring the growth of Russian consumer prices by consumer price indices (CPI) of the state statistics Committee of Russia, first of all, the possibility of bias in them. It is shown that due to objective reasons, the accuracy of measuring the growth of Russian consumer prices during the period of economic reforms is low, which should be taken into account when using the CPI of Goskomstat. It is also shown that some features of the Goskomstat method can lead, and most likely lead, to a significant overestimation of the price increase in 1992-1993 by the Goskomstat. In this case, the dynamics of all Russian indicators in comparable prices obtained using the CPI of Goskomstat needs to be clarified in favor of significantly less pessimistic estimates of their changes after price liberalization. Recommendations on modification of the CPI calculation method to eliminate the detected displacements are formulated. |
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67–83
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On the basis of retrospective data on the activities of Moscow commercial banks for 1996-1997, statistical dependencies between financial indicators provided by them to the Central Bank are investigated. The concept of the integral size of the Bank, more resistant to individual deviations of individual indicators than the commonly used definitions of size, is introduced. It is established that the average ratios between different financial indicators characterizing the Bank are weakly dependent on the integral size of the Bank. A method of assessing the reliability of the Bank, using statistical training on retrospective data on the activities of the Bank against the background of the entire array of banks studied as a whole, is proposed. On retrospective data the prognostic power of estimation of reliability of commercial Bank on the basis of values of the various standards entered by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, and the indicators used In kromonov's technique is investigated. A comparison of the number of errors and the average financial gain of the client when making a decision on the reliability of the Bank on the basis of the methodology proposed in the work, with the results obtained by using The kromonov methodology and the Central Bank standards. The stability in time of the corresponding decision rules is estimated. |
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84–94
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In recent years, commercial banks have been exchanging data on their policies regarding attracting and placing funds, using various financial instruments, and working with clients. We also assess the possibilities of working in the financial market, expanding the scope of banks ' activities, and increasing their potential. Starting from the end of 1993 and ending in 1996, the Bank of Russia conducted surveys of its territorial institutions and commercial banks within the framework of the research program "Monitoring of banking policy". As of January 1, 1997, 250 Respondent banks and 65 territorial institutions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation took part in them. The data obtained reflect the activities of more than 8000 credit institutions operating in Russia. The surveys were conducted by the main departments of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and national banks of the republics within the Russian Federation. Data exchange between banks and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation was carried out via e-mail. As an information base, the article uses data published in the collections of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation "Monitoring of banking policy" for 1993-1996, as well as data published in the reports of the State Committee on statistics of the Russian Federation "Socio-economic situation of Russia" for 1996-1997. |
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95–122
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The journal continues to publish a series of lectures on national accounts, a complex macroeconomic model that forms the basis of economic statistics in most market economies. The system of national accounts is being implemented in Russia. The lectures touch upon the methodological problems of building national accounts, as well as some practical issues. |
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